Reading Your Betting Equity Curve

An equity curve is a line chart of cumulative profit (or bankroll) after each settled bet, in chronological order. It turns a table of results into a story you can read at a glance.

What a healthy curve looks like

Positive edge with sensible staking produces an upward drift with drawdowns — not a straight line. Short flat or down periods are normal variance; sustained drift against you may signal model decay or discipline slip.

Common curve shapes

Steady grind — small edges, low variance sports (some exchange markets). Shallow slope, small drawdowns.

Volatile spikes — longshot-heavy portfolios. Large swings; ROI alone misleads without stake context.

Cliff drop — often stakes increased after a hot streak (non-Kelly behaviour) or a strategy change mid-sample.

Pending bets

Unsettled wagers should not appear on the equity curve — they have no realised P/L yet. Including them inflates or deflates the line fictitiously.

Bankroll vs profit curve

Some charts plot starting bankroll + cumulative profit; others plot profit only. Align the chart with how you mentally manage money. mybetrecord’s equity curve uses settled profit over time; bankroll in the ticker includes your configured starting bankroll plus realised P/L.

Using the curve diagnostically

1. Mark strategy changes on the timeline (new sport, new tipster)
2. Compare curve slope before/after change
3. Overlay average stake — is variance stake-driven or edge-driven?

Pair with other metrics

Equity curves lie by omission if you ignore CLV, yield, and sample size. Use the curve for intuition; use tables for decisions.

View your equity curve in mybetrecord reports after logging a few settled bets.